RBA zaostrzył ton, wstrzymując obniżki stóp przy 3,60%.

Wobec sierpnia decyzja jest bardziej jastrzębia: stopę utrzymano na 3,60% zamiast ciąć o 25 pb. Silniejszy popyt prywatny i większe ryzyko inflacji wsparły ostrożność.

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to ~~lower~~leave the cash rate ~~target~~unchanged byat ~~25 basis points to~~ 3.60 per cent. Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and potential supply closer towards balance. In the June quarter, trimmed mean inflation over the year fell to 2.7 per cent, broadly as expected in May. Headline inflation, which has partly been affected by temporary cost of living relief measures, was 2.1 per cent, also as forecast. Updated staff forecasts for the August meeting suggest that underlying inflation will continue to moderate to around the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent range, with the cash rate assumed to follow a gradual easing path.Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and potential supply closer towards balance. Both headline and trimmed mean inflation were within the 2–3 per cent range in the June quarter. Recent data, while partial and volatile, suggest that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than expected at the time of the August Statement on Monetary Policy. Uncertainty in the world economy remains elevated. There is a little more clarity on the scope and scale of US tariffs and policy responses in other countries, suggesting that more extreme outcomes are likely to be avoided. Trade policy developments are nevertheless still expected to have an adverse effect on global economic activity, and there remains a risk that households and firms delay expenditure pending still greater clarity on the outlook. As in May, the forecasts assume that both effects weigh on activity and inflation in Australia for a period.Data for the June quarter show that private demand is recovering a little more rapidly than expected, taking over from public demand as the driver of growth. In particular, private consumption is picking up as real household incomes rise and measures of financial conditions ease. The housing market is strengthening, a sign that recent interest rate decreases are having an effect. Credit is readily available to both households and businesses. ~~Domestically, private demand appears to have been recovering gradually, real household incomes have picked up and some measures of financial conditions have eased.~~Various indicators suggest that labour market conditions have been broadly steady in recent months and remain a little tight. Growth in employment has slowed by slightly more than expected, but the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 per cent in August. Measures of labour underutilisation remain at low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour has been little changed of late. Looking through quarterly volatility, wages growth has eased from its peak, but productivity growth has been weak and growth in unit labour costs remains high. Various indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain a little tight, although have eased further in recent months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 per cent in the month of June and averaged 4.2 per cent in the June quarter as a whole, in line with the May forecasts. Measures of labour underutilisation nevertheless remain at low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Looking through quarterly volatility, wages growth has eased from its peak but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation stemming from both domestic and international developments. On the domestic side, stronger-than-expected data on growth and inflation may indicate that households have become more comfortable consuming as real incomes and wealth rise. If this continues, it may make it easier for businesses to pass on cost increases and lead to more demand for labour. Alternatively, the recent growth in consumption might not persist, particularly if households become more concerned about overseas developments. There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation stemming from both domestic and international developments. The forecasts released today are for the recovery in household consumption growth to be sustained as real incomes rise. Businesses in some sectors, however, continue to report that weakness in demand is making it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices. There is a risk that consumption growth is a little slower than expected, which could weigh on growth in aggregate demand and lead to weaker labour market conditions. Alternatively, as real incomes and wealth continue to rise, households might choose to consume more and save less than expected. Labour market outcomes may also prove stronger than expected, given the signal from a range of leading indicators.Uncertainty in the global economy remains elevated. There is a little more clarity on the scope and scale of US tariffs and policy responses in other countries, suggesting that more extreme outcomes are likely to be avoided. Trade policy developments are nevertheless still expected to have an adverse effect on global economic growth over time. Beyond tariffs, a broader range of geopolitical risks remain a threat to the global economy. This could all weigh on growth in aggregate demand and lead to weaker labour market conditions in the domestic economy. There are also uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of recent monetary policy easing, ~~and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to~~ the balance between aggregate demand and potential supply for goods and services, conditions in the labour market and ~~continued~~the ~~weak~~outlook ~~productivity~~for ~~outcomes~~productivity. With underlying inflation continuing to decline back towards the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent range and labour market conditions easing slightly, as expected, the Board judged that a further easing of monetary policy was appropriate. This takes the decline in the cash rate since the beginning of the year to 75 basis points. The Board nevertheless remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and potential supply. It noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia.With signs that private demand is recovering, indications that inflation may be persistent in some areas and labour market conditions overall remaining stable, the Board decided that it was appropriate to maintain the cash rate at its current level at this meeting. Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year and this seems to be having some impact, but it will take some time to see the full effects of earlier cash rate reductions. The Board judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious, updating its view of the outlook as the data evolve. The Board remains alert to the heightened level of uncertainty about the outlook. It noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia. The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome. Today’s policy decision was unanimous. Governor Michele Bullock addresses the media after the monetary policy decision. Minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting, published two weeks after the decision. ~~The RBA's assessment of the economy that the Board considered in making its decision.~~

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent.

Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and potential supply closer towards balance. Both headline and trimmed mean inflation were within the 2–3 per cent range in the June quarter. Recent data, while partial and volatile, suggest that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than expected at the time of the August Statement on Monetary Policy.

Data for the June quarter show that private demand is recovering a little more rapidly than expected, taking over from public demand as the driver of growth. In particular, private consumption is picking up as real household incomes rise and measures of financial conditions ease. The housing market is strengthening, a sign that recent interest rate decreases are having an effect. Credit is readily available to both households and businesses.

Various indicators suggest that labour market conditions have been broadly steady in recent months and remain a little tight. Growth in employment has slowed by slightly more than expected, but the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 per cent in August. Measures of labour underutilisation remain at low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour has been little changed of late. Looking through quarterly volatility, wages growth has eased from its peak, but productivity growth has been weak and growth in unit labour costs remains high.

There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation stemming from both domestic and international developments. On the domestic side, stronger-than-expected data on growth and inflation may indicate that households have become more comfortable consuming as real incomes and wealth rise. If this continues, it may make it easier for businesses to pass on cost increases and lead to more demand for labour. Alternatively, the recent growth in consumption might not persist, particularly if households become more concerned about overseas developments.

Uncertainty in the global economy remains elevated. There is a little more clarity on the scope and scale of US tariffs and policy responses in other countries, suggesting that more extreme outcomes are likely to be avoided. Trade policy developments are nevertheless still expected to have an adverse effect on global economic growth over time. Beyond tariffs, a broader range of geopolitical risks remain a threat to the global economy. This could all weigh on growth in aggregate demand and lead to weaker labour market conditions in the domestic economy.

There are also uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of recent monetary policy easing, the balance between aggregate demand and potential supply for goods and services, conditions in the labour market and the outlook for productivity.

With signs that private demand is recovering, indications that inflation may be persistent in some areas and labour market conditions overall remaining stable, the Board decided that it was appropriate to maintain the cash rate at its current level at this meeting. Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year and this seems to be having some impact, but it will take some time to see the full effects of earlier cash rate reductions. The Board judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious, updating its view of the outlook as the data evolve. The Board remains alert to the heightened level of uncertainty about the outlook. It noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia.

The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.

Today’s policy decision was unanimous.

Governor Michele Bullock addresses the media after the monetary policy decision.

Minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting, published two weeks after the decision.