Das geldpolitische Signal der Bank of Canada bleibt im Kern unverändert.

Die relative Ausrichtung bleibt unverändert: Der Zins liegt weiter bei 2,25 %, während klarere Hinweise das Übergehen des kurzfristigen Kriegsschubs bei der Inflation gegen das Verhindern einer Verfestigung abwägen.

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The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The war in the Middle East has increased volatility in global energy prices and financial markets, and heightened the risks to the global economy. The breadth and duration of the conflict, and hence its economic impacts, are highly uncertain.The evolving conflict in the Middle East is causing heightened volatility and US trade policy continues to reshape global trade patterns. Both are ongoing sources of uncertainty. The Bank’s April outlook assumes tariffs remain unchanged and the global benchmark price of oil declines to US$75 per barrel by mid 2027. Prior to the war, the global economy was on pace to grow at around 3%, as expected in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Economic growth in the United States has moderated but remains solid, driven by consumption and strong AI-related investment. US inflation remains above target and has evolved largely as expected. In the euro area, domestic demand is supporting growth while exports have contracted. China’s economy continues to be boosted by strength in exports, but domestic demand remains weak.The Iran war has led to sharply higher energy prices and transportation disruptions, diminishing growth prospects in oil-importing countries and boosting inflation worldwide. In the United States, growth is still expected to be solid over the projection horizon, boosted by AI-related investment and consumption growth. China’s economy is being supported by robust exports. In the euro area, higher prices for oil and natural gas will weigh on economic activity. Since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, global oil and natural gas prices have risen sharply, and this will boost global inflation in the near-term. In addition to energy supply disruptions, transportation bottlenecks stemming from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz could impact the supply of other commodities, such as fertilizer. Financial conditions have tightened from accommodative levels. Global bond yields have risen, equity market prices have declined, and credit spreads have widened. The Canada-US dollar exchange rate has remained relatively stable.Financial conditions have been volatile, reflecting daily developments in the Middle East and shifting market expectations for inflation and interest rates. Bond yields are modestly higher since January while equity markets, which weakened sharply at the outset of the war, have recovered. Since the start of the war, the US dollar has appreciated against most major currencies. The Canada-US exchange rate has been relatively stable. After expanding by 2.4% in the third quarter of last year, GDP in Canada contracted 0.6% in the fourth quarter. This was weaker than expected at the time of the January MPR, but mainly because of a larger-than-expected drawdown in inventories. Domestic demand grew by more than 2% due to strength in consumer and government spending, even as housing markets remained weak.Overall, the global economy is expected to grow by about 3% in 2026, 2027 and 2028. Projections for inflation over the next year are revised up because of the jump in energy prices. We continue to expect the Canadian economy to grow modestly as it adjusts to US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, but recent data suggest that near-term economic growth will be weaker than anticipated in January. The labour market remains soft. Employment gains in the fourth quarter of 2025 were largely reversed in the first two months of 2026, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in February. Looking through the volatility, recent data also suggest ongoing weakness in exports. It’s too early to assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on growth in Canada.The outlook for economic growth in Canada is little changed from the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projection. After a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2025, growth is forecast to have resumed in early 2026. Consumer and government spending are supporting economic activity, while tariffs and trade uncertainty are weighing on exports and business investment. Housing activity declined in the fourth quarter and is being held back by slow population growth, economic uncertainty and ongoing affordability issues. The labour market is soft, with subdued employment growth over the past year and job losses in sectors targeted by US tariffs. The unemployment rate remains in the 6½%‑7% range, reflecting both weak hiring and fewer job seekers. CPI inflation eased further to 1.8% in February, down from 2.3% in January. CPI inflation excluding changes in indirect taxes as well as core inflation measures have also come down and are all close to 2%. Food inflation slowed in February but remains elevated. The sharp increase in global energy prices has led to increases in gasoline prices, and this will push up total inflation in the coming months.The Bank’s April forecast projects GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026, rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028 as growth in exports and business investment resumes along a lower trajectory. With GDP growing slightly above potential, the current excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed. While the war in Iran may alter its composition, overall GDP growth is little changed in the updated forecast: Since Canada is a large net exporter of oil, higher oil prices increase national income even as consumers are squeezed by higher gasoline prices. Against this overall backdrop, Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 2.25%. With recent data pointing to weaker economic activity and uncertainty elevated, risks to growth look tilted to the downside. At the same time, inflation risks have gone up due to higher energy prices. We will continue to assess the impact of US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, and how the Canadian economy is adjusting. We are also monitoring the unfolding conflict in the Middle East closely and assessing its impact on growth and inflation. As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed. The Bank is committed to ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.CPI inflation climbed to 2.4% in March because of sharply higher gasoline prices. The March increase follows several months of slowing inflation data. Core inflation has been easing and held steady at just above 2% in the most recent inflation report. The proportion of components of the CPI basket rising above 3% has also declined in recent months. As expected, so far there is little evidence that oil prices have fed through more broadly to goods and services prices, but this warrants close attention in the months ahead. Near-term inflation expectations have moved up with higher gasoline prices and still-elevated food price inflation, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained anchored. CPI inflation will likely rise further in April to about 3%. Based on the assumption that oil prices will ease, inflation is forecast to come down to the 2% target early next year and remain around 2% over the projection horizon. Against this backdrop and taking into account the current projection, Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 2.25%. We are closely monitoring the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and how the economy is responding to US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. Governing Council is looking through the war’s immediate impact on inflation but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation. As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed. The Bank is committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Aktuelle Version

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

The evolving conflict in the Middle East is causing heightened volatility and US trade policy continues to reshape global trade patterns. Both are ongoing sources of uncertainty. The Bank’s April outlook assumes tariffs remain unchanged and the global benchmark price of oil declines to US$75 per barrel by mid 2027.

The Iran war has led to sharply higher energy prices and transportation disruptions, diminishing growth prospects in oil-importing countries and boosting inflation worldwide. In the United States, growth is still expected to be solid over the projection horizon, boosted by AI-related investment and consumption growth. China’s economy is being supported by robust exports. In the euro area, higher prices for oil and natural gas will weigh on economic activity.

Financial conditions have been volatile, reflecting daily developments in the Middle East and shifting market expectations for inflation and interest rates. Bond yields are modestly higher since January while equity markets, which weakened sharply at the outset of the war, have recovered. Since the start of the war, the US dollar has appreciated against most major currencies. The Canada-US exchange rate has been relatively stable.

Overall, the global economy is expected to grow by about 3% in 2026, 2027 and 2028. Projections for inflation over the next year are revised up because of the jump in energy prices.

The outlook for economic growth in Canada is little changed from the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projection. After a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2025, growth is forecast to have resumed in early 2026. Consumer and government spending are supporting economic activity, while tariffs and trade uncertainty are weighing on exports and business investment. Housing activity declined in the fourth quarter and is being held back by slow population growth, economic uncertainty and ongoing affordability issues. The labour market is soft, with subdued employment growth over the past year and job losses in sectors targeted by US tariffs. The unemployment rate remains in the 6½%‑7% range, reflecting both weak hiring and fewer job seekers.

The Bank’s April forecast projects GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026, rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028 as growth in exports and business investment resumes along a lower trajectory. With GDP growing slightly above potential, the current excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed. While the war in Iran may alter its composition, overall GDP growth is little changed in the updated forecast: Since Canada is a large net exporter of oil, higher oil prices increase national income even as consumers are squeezed by higher gasoline prices.

CPI inflation climbed to 2.4% in March because of sharply higher gasoline prices. The March increase follows several months of slowing inflation data. Core inflation has been easing and held steady at just above 2% in the most recent inflation report. The proportion of components of the CPI basket rising above 3% has also declined in recent months. As expected, so far there is little evidence that oil prices have fed through more broadly to goods and services prices, but this warrants close attention in the months ahead. Near-term inflation expectations have moved up with higher gasoline prices and still-elevated food price inflation, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained anchored.

CPI inflation will likely rise further in April to about 3%. Based on the assumption that oil prices will ease, inflation is forecast to come down to the 2% target early next year and remain around 2% over the projection horizon.

Against this backdrop and taking into account the current projection, Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 2.25%. We are closely monitoring the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and how the economy is responding to US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. Governing Council is looking through the war’s immediate impact on inflation but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation. As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed. The Bank is committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.